What’s new? Notwithstanding a recent flurry of diplomacy, China remains unhappy with Myanmar’s military regime and resistant to normalising relations. In late 2023, it gave tacit support to a major rebel offensive in north-eastern Myanmar that dealt the junta a resounding defeat in a strategic enclave on the Chinese border.

Why does it matter? China has more leverage in Myanmar than any other foreign power. While it cannot dictate outcomes, it can influence events. Beijing is cautious about outside involvement in its neighbourhood, but its ambivalence about the regime leaves room for greater international consensus on how to deal with Myanmar’s post-coup crisis.

What should be done? While Beijing has traditionally taken a border management approach that focuses on minimising active conflict, it should aim to foster long-term stability, including by promoting alternatives to illicit activity and cracking down on all forms of organised crime, not just those that have the biggest impact on China.