‘China’s Janus-faced response to the Arab revolutions’, Jonas Parello-Plesner & Raffaello Pantucci


Dear colleagues, 

The European Council on Foreign Relations is pleased to announce the publication of a new policy memo: ‘China’s Janus-faced response to the Arab revolutions’, by ECFR Senior Policy Fellow Jonas Parello-Plesnerand ECFR China Programme Associate Raffaello Pantucci

Analysing China’s reaction to the North African unrest, this paper outlines how Beijing was caught off guard by the Arab Spring. Its first response in Libya was to go along with international sanctions against Gaddafi while evacuating thousands of Chinese citizens. It then changed tack and opposed international action, while cracking down on any threat of internal dissent. This zigzagging response to the crisis points to the new pressures that Beijing is under, from growing international interests to a population that is increasingly connected to events abroad. It also suggests that Europe may have greater opportunity to encourage both Chinese engagement in the international community and reform within China itself. 

In particular, the paper examines how: 

  • China’s international interests(it had an estimated 38,000 nationals in Libya, along with contracts worth $18.8 billion) mean it can no longer remain aloof from developments like the Arab revolutions.
  • Beijing’s behaviour is increasingly influenced by relationships with other nations, for instance South-South cooperation. Its initial support for sanctions in Libya was influenced by the stance of Arab nations and the Arab League.
  • Beijing’s domestic crackdown, including the arrest of artist Ai Weiwei, demonstrate the authorities’ concerns about increasing connections to the outside world. In the 20 months since microblogs began appearing in China, 70% of ‘hot’ topics concern official impropriety and 20% relate to the police.

Arguing that the EU has the opportunity to push for greater Chinese concern for human rights and Chinese responsibility on the international stage, the authors recommend that: 

  1. The EU needs to remain vocal and consistent on Chinese human rights and internal reforms. Despite inciting Chinese anger it is clear that Beijing is reluctant to harm its genuine interests with European nations.
  2. The EU should negotiate a ‘stability pact plus’with China to encourage Chinese engagement with third countries, including crisis management and mutual support.
  3. As it seems easier to influence China through others, a discreet China component could be added to EU dialogues with other emerging countries.

We hope that you will find the paper interesting and stimulating. We would welcome your comments and feedback on this memo, which can be addressed to the authors directly at: jonas.parello-plesner@ecfr.eu and rpantucci@gmail.com

Link to full memo:http://www.ecfr.eu/content/entry/chinas_janus_faced_response_to_the_arab_revolutions

 

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2-VI-11